By Rohan Gunaratna

Introduction

The 60-day interim ceasefire agreement signed on June 17, 2026, faces an official deadline on August 17, 2026. So, will the Middle East return to war on August 17, 2026? The agreement is already widely considered defunct in practice due to renewed military strikes and a complete deadlock in extension talks.

The Middle East will return to war. However, the US attacks on Iran will be limited. In retaliation, Iran will strike both US targets in the Middle East as well as the countries hosting US bases.

The Context

On April 8, 2026, the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire in the 2026 Iran war, mediated by Pakistan. Iran had rejected the draft proposal for a 45-day two-phase ceasefire framework introduced on April 5, by Pakistan, instead proposing its own 10-point plan for a peace agreement. The proposal was developed as part of ongoing mediation efforts involving regional and international actors during the 2025–2026 negotiations.

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