Protecting Markets from Illicit Disruption: Current Trends of Cigarette Smuggling in the Philippines

The following article is a reproduction of Prof Rohan Gunaratna’s address at The PROTECT2026 Conference held in Makati City, Philippines on the 14th of May 2026. The session was titled ‘Transnational Crime: Protecting Markets from Illicit Disruption’.
The White House releases the US Counter Terrorism Strategy 2026

To secure and advance US interests, the Trump Administration has developed three far reaching strategies – its National Security Strategy, its National Defense Strategy and its Counter Terrorism Strategy.
The US Counter Terrorism Strategy released by the White House in May 2026 highlights the renewed U.S. commitment to fight global terrorism. Without competing with each other, the west and the east should partner, collaborate and cooperate to dismantle threat entities largely located in the global south.
The New Global Wave of Terrorism

In the past, the global terrorism environment was largely influenced and shaped by propaganda disseminated by affiliates of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State. In addition to the continuing threat by Al Qaeda and the Islamic State, the threat today is shaped by another hostile actor – Iran.
In this article, I write about what this development could mean for the international security community and the safety and security of everyone.
Middle East War’s Next Phase: Who Will Open the Strait of Hormuz?

The Ayatollahs of Iran present themselves as the guardians of the Muslims. By exploiting religious beliefs, they have got away by threatening both mainstream Iranians and the international community. A mere US and Israeli military response is inadequate – in parallel, the response should be political, economic and social. Only then, the regime run by the IRGC will be dismantled and its ideology replaced. However, for such an achievement, governments worldwide need to come together and work with the Iranian people.
In this article, I write an in-depth analysis of the problem presenting itself to the international security community.
Are the Protesters Crossing the Redline?

If protestors knew the limits and the bounds within which they can protest, much harm can be curtailed! Protestors are harming and damaging the very security infrastructure and personnel that have provided safety and security for them to live peacefully in their countries.
In this article, I write about the recent damage inflicted by pro-Palestine protestors to the security apparatus of their own countries, and call for governments including the UK security leaders to tighten laws and increase law enforcement presence:
The Rise of Jewish Terrorism During the Iran War

Violence has increased in the West Bank following the war with Iran, with reports of “hilltop youth” (radical settlers) committing acts described as a “fight for control of the territory” and aiming to uproot Palestinians, often with the support of some government members.
I urge Israeli leaders to do everything necessary to curb settler violence in the West Bank and persecute individuals responsible for inciting violence.
Will the Middle East War Drive Global Terrorism?

With the outbreak of the War in the Middle East (February 28, 2026-…), the threat of extremism and terrorism will grow. To mitigate the threat at a global, regional, national and local level – leadership is vital.
While the threat in the Middle East persists due to Iran’s sponsorship of terrorism, the global threat has expanded in two directions. While an Al Qaeda/Taliban centric Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is rated the most violent group in Asia, both Al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates dominate the violence in Africa.
I highly recommend the latest released Global Terrorism Index (GTI) published by The Institute for Economics and Peace and urge everyone working in security to allocate some time to study it.
Iran’s Strategic Leap: Middle East War Expands

If anyone had doubts that the Iranian regime was engaged in terrorism, Tehran’s conduct after the Middle East War that erupted on February 28, 2026 has demonstrated adequately its preponderant use of terrorism! Using aerospace weapons – missiles, drones and rockets – the Iranian regime has mounted attacks on 12 countries in the neighbourhood, including mostly against civilian targets.
In this article, I address questions about what could come next now that Iran has displayed that its missile range could reach 4,000km. Read it here
Mojtaba vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed

In his public statement released on national television, the new Supreme Leader of Iran Mojtaba Khamenei ordered the Strait of Hormuz remain closed as a “strategic lever” to pressure international energy markets and the U.S.
He also delivered an ultimatum to neighbors and warned the Gulf Arab states to shut down U.S. military bases on their soil immediately; and stated that these installations would remain targets for Iranian strikes as long as they are operational.
He demanded reparations from Iran’s “enemies” for war damages, threatening to seize or destroy their assets to an equivalent extent if they refuse to pay. And praised the “Resistance Front”, including specifically naming Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iraqi resistance groups.
Who is Iran’s New Leader?

Mojtaba Khamenei was chosen as Iran’s spiritual, political and the military leader of Iran after his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on Feb 28, 2026. Iran’s top clerical body, the Assembly of Experts, issued a statement shortly after midnight on March 9 in Iran. In this article, I outline his background and probable course of action.