{"id":2224,"date":"2026-06-15T07:04:23","date_gmt":"2026-06-15T06:04:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/?p=2224"},"modified":"2026-06-15T07:04:24","modified_gmt":"2026-06-15T06:04:24","slug":"war-and-peace-with-iran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/2026\/06\/15\/war-and-peace-with-iran\/","title":{"rendered":"War and Peace with Iran"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

By Rohan Gunaratna<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Introduction<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The Middle East will remain a region of instability and insecurity despite the interim agreement that has been reached on June 14. The agreement calls for a ceasefire on all fronts, Iran to \u201copen\u201d the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports. The United States and Iran will sign the agreement in Geneva on June 19. However, the next few months will be a period of danger as IRGC will consolidate its power and control in Tehran. Iran\u2019s intention is not only to become a continental but a great power. IRGC will restore its fissile, missile and partner\/proxy programs that guarantees its security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Context<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The three core issues that led to the war remains unresolved. After the U.S. and Israel eliminated Ayatollah Khamenei, Tehran is run by the IRGC, a military government. The main administrative, political, military and intelligence entity, IRGC is the decision maker. Despite threats, the hardline IRGC-led government refused to end the military nuclear program, curb the missile program, and dismantle its militia partners and criminal proxies. These are the three core programs that provides Iran its deterrence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the flow of oil and other energy supplies benefits Iran including the IRGC budget, the Iranian regime agreed to open the Strait of Hormuz. At the US\u2019 insistence, the Iranian regime agreed not to charge a toll on the vessels using the Strait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trump\u2019s threats to strike again forced Iran not to charge a toll. However, Iran proved to be a tough negotiator – it did not compromise on its core issues. As Trump is determined to dismantle Iran\u2019s nuclear capabilities and put an IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) verification program in place, the IRGC seeks to buy time. Neither Iran\u2019s skills in deception to buy time nor Trump\u2019s will to resume the fight should be underestimated. The interim agreement between the US and Iran will either pave the way for serious negotiation on the three core issues or will return to war in the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the meanwhile, the IAEA Board of Governors has issued a resolution against Iran, demanding it to disclose the location of its enriched uranium and allow IAEA inspections to nuclear sites. The resolution passed with 21 votes in favor, 3 against, and 10 abstentions. Iran will take \u2018reciprocal measures\u2019 in response to the resolution[1]<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Interim Agreement<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

On June 15, 2026, President Donald Trump said: \u201cThe Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow! President DONALD J. TRUMP\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On Jun 15, 2026, Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister of Pakistan said, \u201cFollowing intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of State of Qatar, for their support in reaching this agreement. I would also especially thank the visionary leadership of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Republic of T\u00fcrkiye for their immense contributions in this regard.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chronology<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The 2026 Middle East interim agreement was reached following an intense four-month conflict that began with US-Israeli strikes starting on February 28, 2026. It was driven by the need to halt widespread fighting and reopen the vital Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

February 28 – March 2026:<\/strong> The US and Israel launched joint large-scale military strikes against Iran, targeting military leadership and nuclear sites. In retaliation, Iran officially closed the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in a global energy and shipping crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

April 7 – 8, 2026:<\/strong> Following weeks of heavy aerial bombardment and the US imposition of a formal naval blockade, the United States and Iran agreed to an initial two-week temporary ceasefire mediated by Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

April 11 – 12, 2026:<\/strong> Mediated talks took place in Islamabad to establish a lasting ceasefire. However, these talks failed to reach an agreement over the mechanics of reopening the Strait and Iranian nuclear concessions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

April – Early June 2026:<\/strong> A brutal deadlock ensued with fluctuating naval clashes and US operations. Diplomatic channels were kept open via regional mediators, primarily Qatar and Pakistan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

June 14, 2026:<\/strong> Following intense back-channel negotiations and despite localized escalations (such as Israeli strikes in Lebanon), US President Donald Trump and Iranian officials signaled that a 14-point memorandum of understanding was agreed upon. The deal included halting fighting, reopening the Strait, and allowing for unfreezing of certain Iranian assets in exchange for temporary nuclear curbs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

June 15, 2026:<\/strong> World leaders welcomed the breakthrough, with formal signing ceremonies scheduled for later that week in Switzerland. This interim agreement sets the stage for a further 60-day window of negotiations over Tehran’s broader nuclear program.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US Position<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

In response to the Iranian attack on the U.S. Apache helicopter, CENTCOM conducted “self-defense strikes against Iran” on June 10, 2026. The United States struck nearly 20 targets inside Iran overnight. Iran retaliated by striking US targets in the neighbouring countries with missiles and drones. Gulf states and Jordan intercepted these projectiles. As of now, there were no reports of damage or casualties resulting from the attacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vice President Vance told Fox News that this interim agreement includes the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the lifting of the naval blockade on Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He said the deal also states that Iran will never have a nuclear weapon and will not try to buy one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vance said the benefits for Iran depend on Tehran keeping its promises, with a verification approach built into the agreement. He said that if Iran complies, the deal could fundamentally transform the Middle East for the next 50 years.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the meantime, US senator Lindsey Graham said on June 15, 2026,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cI am pleased to hear the memorandum of understanding with Iran to allow the Strait of Hormuz to open has been agreed to. I will be watching closely the ensuing negotiations regarding Iran\u2019s nuclear program and other matters.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I am somewhat concerned that Iran\u2019s view of the agreement seems different than what the American negotiating team is claiming.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Under our law, any nuclear deal with Iran will be sent to Congress for review and a vote. I look forward to reviewing the final product and I believe it is imperative that the architect of the deal, Vice President Vance and his negotiating partners, be part of the process in presenting the final deal to Congress.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Congratulations to all in getting us to this point. Time will tell.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Jun 10, 2026, President Trump told Fox News that Iran attempted to rebuild its radar and air-defense systems during the ceasefire but had restored only “just a few percentages” of its defensive capabilities.

He added that U.S. strikes later destroyed much of the restored infrastructure, saying they “took out about 55 percent of what they were even able to rebuild.”<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Jun 11, 2026, President Trump: \u2018It could be the greatest deal in history. They could wave the white flag of surrender. They could say \u2018we surrender, we surrender, we\u2019re finished, we\u2019ve had it, the United States is the greatest power, praise be to Allah!\u2019<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Israel\u2019s Position<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

On Jun 14, 2026, just before the interim agreement, the IDF (Israeli Defence Forces) target in Beirut was a Hezbollah terrorist responsible for killing five U.S. soldiers in Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Israel\u2019s position is security first and diplomacy second. As Iran is the patron of the Shi\u2019ite partners and criminal proxies striking Israel and Jews, Israel wants the freedom to strike back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran stated that it decided not to attack Israel after Trump proposed an Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and the immediate removal of the naval blockade. However, Netanyahu refuses to withdraw the IDF from its positions in southern Lebanon. He made it clear to the negotiators with Iran that whatever is decided in those talks will not bind Israel or prevent it from remaining in Lebanon and continuing its fight against Hezbollah. Israeli PM said no, even to its closest and most trusted ally, the US. The clash of interests is now in full swing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To hardline Israelis committed to the security of the State of Israel, while Trump is looking for deal ceremonies and favorable optics, Israel is fighting for its very survival. An Israeli analyst said Trump is giving Iran major concessions and getting nothing meaningful in return. The analyst says the most absurd part is that a war against Iran is ending with sanctions relief for Iranian oil sales, something Tehran did not have before the war. In return, the analyst says the Americans are getting nothing on the nuclear program, nothing on ballistic missiles, and nothing on Iran\u2019s proxies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s position<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

The Iranian news agency Mehr, citing the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, has published all 14 clauses of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed with the US:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

\u201c1. Permanent and immediate cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2. The US commitment to non-interference in Iran\u2019s internal affairs and respect for the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3. Complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. The US commitment to withdraw its forces from around Iran.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian arrangements.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6. Suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products, and derivatives, and full access of Iran to its financial resources.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7. The necessity for the US and its allies to present reconstruction plans for Iran amounting to at least 300 billion dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

8. 60 days of negotiations to reach a final agreement based on nuclear issues and the complete lifting of primary, secondary, US sanctions, and UN Security Council and IAEA Board of Governors resolutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

9. Reiteration of Iran\u2019s commitment under the NPT treaty not to produce nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

10. During the negotiation period, the US has committed not to add forces in the region and not to impose new sanctions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

11. Release of 24 billion dollars of Iran\u2019s blocked funds during the 60-day final negotiation period. Half of this amount must be made available to Iran before the start of negotiations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

12. Formation of a supervisory mechanism to implement the agreement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

13. The final agreement will be approved by a UN Security Council resolution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

14. Final negotiations will not begin before the release of half of Iran\u2019s blocked funds, suspension of Iran\u2019s oil sanctions, and lifting of the naval blockade, and the final agreement will only cover the fate of enriched materials and enrichment, lifting of sanctions, and Iran\u2019s economic reconstruction plan. Discussions about Iran\u2019s missile program and support for resistance groups are definitively removed from the agenda.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

As a reminder, the official signing of the memorandum is scheduled for June 19 in Geneva.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Iran\u2019s position driven by IRGC is reflected in the words of Ali Akbar Velayati, one of the most influential figures in the Islamic Republic of Iran. On June 15, 2026, Velayati said,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe miscalculation in Beirut has brought patience to an end, and the order has been issued. Zero hour has arrived, and the launchers are being prepared.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Hezbollah is a part of the body of the Axis of Resistance. If the fire of aggression in Lebanon is not extinguished, the two powerful geographic arms – Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb – will squeeze your economic arteries until the point of strategic suffocation.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another partner of Iran, the Houthis threatened on June 8, 2026  a complete blockade in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb Strait for all vessels related to Israel. Emphasize that “we will respond to any escalation with escalation”. When Iran cannot fight directly, it fights through its partners and proxies. There is no global or regional strategy to restore long term security and peace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Jun 11, 2026: Former Commander of the Revolutionary Guards – Mohsen Rezaei:

\u201cThe unhinged U.S. president imagines that bombs can get him out of the quagmire he himself created. But Iranian missiles will sink him even deeper into it.

Washington must choose between accepting Iran\u2019s terms and losing the last shred of its credibility in the world.\u201d<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Conclusion<\/h1>\n\n\n\n

Pakistan, Qatar and Turkey played a vital role in mediating the dispute between Iran and the US. It is a good first step to give peace a chance without compromising long term strategic peace and security in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When there is no resolution on the core issues, did the mediators and negotiators choose to buy time?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As Churchill wrote to Lord Moyne right before the Munich agreement: \u201cWe seem to be very near the bleak choice between War and Shame. My feeling is that we shall choose Shame, and then have War thrown in a little later on even more adverse terms than at present.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

During this period of negotiation, IRGC will resume its fissile and missile program and seek to emerge as a continental power. To threaten its enemies, adversaries and opponents, the IRGC will also strengthen its partners and proxies during this period. The reality is that the foreign governments, including those in the Gulf, are afraid to openly tell the truth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

—<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rohan Gunaratna<\/em><\/strong><\/a> is a professor of Security Studies at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at the Nanyang Technological University. He is a trainer for law enforcement, national security and military counter terrorism units; and is the author and editor of over 30 books.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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[1]<\/a> https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/world\/2026\/06\/10\/iran-nuclear-material-access-resolution-vote-iaea\/533e4f5c-64de-11f1-bdd4-805ebb99a693_story.html<\/a>, https:\/\/iranwire.com\/en\/news\/153523-iaea-passes-resolution-demanding-transparency-on-irans-uranium-stockpiles\/<\/a>, https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/speeches\/npt-safeguards-agreement-with-iran-resolution-to-the-iaea-board-of-governors-june-2026<\/a>   <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Interim Agreement reached between the US and Iran yesterday (14 June 2026) calls for a ceasefire on all fronts, Iran to \u201copen\u201d the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States to lift its naval blockade on Iranian ports. The United States and Iran will sign the agreement in Geneva on June 19.
\nHowever, the next few months will be a period of danger as IRGC will consolidate its power and control in Tehran. Especially, as the three core issues that led to the war remains unresolved. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2228,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[55,28,69],"class_list":["post-2224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog","tag-iran","tag-middle-east","tag-united-states"],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t