Introduction<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
The Middle East War has disrupted energy supplies and shaken the global economy. Threatening to destabilise the Gulf, the war has entered the second month. With the War entering Phase II, it is necessary to distinguish between political messaging and operational reality. To prevent the region\u2019s collapse from crisis to chaos, states in the region are balancing diplomacy, defence, and resilience.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The US-Israeli war on Iran has squeezed international supplies of oil, gas and refined products, sending prices soaring in the worst disruption to energy supplies in history.[1]<\/a> UN Trade and Development says Hormuz vessel movements are down about 95%, confirming near-standstill conditions.[2]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n In the Middle East, the heartland of the world, the decisive terrain is the straits of Hormuz and Bab el Mandab. These two straits remain under the control of Iran\u2019s most powerful entity, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp (IRGC). While IRGC has imposed a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, its proxy Ansar Allah of the Houthi Movement is planning to follow IRGC\u2019s directive on the Strait of Bab el Mandab.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After its national leaders were eliminated, Iran is run by the IRGC, an administrative, political, security and military entity. After it failed to coerce the Gulf countries with its missiles and drones to stop the US and Israel to end the attacks, the Iranian regime seeks to inflict pain on the global economy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To prevent a global recession, the US will open the Strait of Hormuz. Even if IRGC relinquishes control of the Hormuz Strait, the U.S. with its partners, are planning and preparing to deploy both naval and ground troops to ensure uninterrupted passage of the tankers that provide a fifth of the global energy supplies. Having threatened to block the neighbouring Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, the Houthi Movement in Yemen is awaiting the signal from its patron, the Iranian regime. With the Houthi Movement in Yemen joining the fight, a third of the global energy supply will be disrupted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cWe must certainly continue to use the lever of closing the Strait of Hormuz\u201d, said Iran\u2019s new leader Mojtaba Khamenei in his inaugural speech on March 12, 2026.[3]<\/a> Opening the Strait is considered the White House\u2019s \u201cbest lever for bringing spiking global oil and gas prices under control\u201d according to the American Petroleum Institute CEO Mike Sommers. Sommers added,<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe truth of the matter is there\u2019s no replacement for the strait. That is the critical piece that has to be done and done quickly,\u201d Sommers said.[4]<\/a>\u00a0 In preparation to open the Strait of Hormuz, the US has shifted significant assets to the region. In addition to its 82nd Airborne Division and the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit, US Air Force, Navy and other assets will participate in the operation. The UK, France, Australia and other nations have strengthened the defences of the countries in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The U.S. support for foreign intervention has fallen to its lowest level after its invasions of Afghanistan to fight Al Qaeda\/Taliban and Iraq to fight Saddam Hussein. While WWII saw near-unanimous backing at 97%, versus just 41% for Iran in 2026.[5]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Nonetheless, the US Administration led by President Donald J. Trump is determined to change the regime in Iran. Working with the Israeli Defence Force (IDF), the U.S. Armed Forces seek to dismantle Iran\u2019s fissile, missile and terrorist proxy programs. In response to the U.S. military\u2019s \u201cOperation Epic Fury\u201d and IDF\u2019s \u201cOperation Roaring Lion\u201d, IRGC mounted \u201cOperation True Promise 4\u201d on February 28, 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The objective of the unfolding US-led operation in the next phase of the Middle East War is to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for international trade and navigation. Most of the beneficiaries of the energy supply from the Strait of Hormuz is Asia and Europe. The U.S. produces more oil than Russia and the Middle East. As such, Trump appealed to China, France, Japan, South Korea and the UK to join a \u201cteam effort\u201d to open up the chokepoint through which a fifth of the world\u2019s oil passes. After Trump pressed China\u2019s President Xi Jinping to help unblock the crucial waterway, he informed NATO leaders, \u201cIf there\u2019s no response or if it\u2019s a negative response, I think it will be very bad for the future of Nato,\u201d Trump declared.[6]<\/a> President Trump expressed frustration with the lack of European involvement, despite the dependence of European countries on oil and gas from the Gulf. However, there is significant support from US allies individually to strengthen the military capabilities of their Middle East partners.[7]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n While NATO is focusing on protecting Europe from the Russian threat, many European nations are supporting the Gulf especially with defence capabilities. On April 1, 2026, UK Defence Secretary John Healey announced a significant deployment of additional UK military personnel and advanced air defence systems to Gulf nations to strengthen defenses against Iranian missile and drone attacks and to secure the Strait of Hormuz. The deployment includes the Sky Sabre ground-based air defence system being deployed to Saudi Arabia to be integrated into local radar and defence grids. \u201cThis sophisticated network\u2014comprising 3D radars, a central control node, and versatile missile launchers\u2014is designed to intercept both high-speed aircraft and incoming munitions.\u201c[8]<\/a> In addition to the Royal Air Force’s ORCUS drone-detection system, the UK will also deploy \u201cRapid Sentry”, an anti-drone system in Kuwait. While a British light multi-role launcher is being integrated into Bahrain’s defence systems, Britain will extend its Typhoon fighter jets, operating in a joint squadron in Qatar. A 1000 UK personnel support Gulf and Cyprus operations in system installation and training. Similarly, Australia is planning to deploy its specialist troops to the Middle East. Initially about 90 Special Air Service personnel will be based at the Al Minhad Air Base near Dubai in the UAE.[9]<\/a> What is important is to strengthen their war fighting capabilities to take on both Iran and its proxies – the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and Ansar Allah in Yemen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The US partners in the Gulf led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE are privately urging Trump to prosecute the war against the Iranian regime. \u201c(S)ome of the regional allies are making the case to the White House that the moment offers a historic opportunity to cripple Tehran\u2019s clerical rule once and for all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Officials from Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain have conveyed in private conversations that they do not want the military operation to end until there are significant changes in the Iranian leadership or there\u2019s a dramatic shift in Iranian behavior.\u201d[10]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran continues to attack targets in the Gulf, damaging airports, sea ports, oil facilities, including oil tankers and disrupting traffic in the Strait prompting US and its partners to act to open the Strait of Hormuz.[11]<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n To secure the Islamic Republic of Iran, the strategy to defend and fight is developed by Iran\u2019s shadow government – the IRGC. To alter the U.S. presence and posture in its neighbourhood, IRGC is relentlessly striking its neighbours. To mount pressure on the U.S. and Israel to stop their attacks on Iran, IRGC is inflicting pain on the global economy. IRGC is focusing on two fronts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n First, by striking both military and civilian targets in the Middle East especially in the Gulf, the leverage IRGC is applying is to drive fear and coerce its neighbours to remove the U.S. forces from the region;<\/p>\n\n\n\n Second, by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the leverage IRGC is applying is to steadfastly strangle the global economy to a stand still.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The sectors impacted are,<\/p>\n\n\n\n The ripples beyond the energy markets are beginning to show with the higher oil and gas prices influencing other parts of the global economy. In countries without strategic reserves the impact is severe affecting from transportation and power generation, to commodity production and industrial activity. If the Straits of Hormuz is not opened and Bab-el Madab too will close, their closure will be catastrophic. The simultaneous closure of the two straits in the Middle East will cripple global energy, shipping, aviation, insurance, and tourism sectors, causing supply chain disruptions, soaring fuel costs, and airspace closures. As on April 1, 2026, 33% of global fertilizer, 25% of global gas, 20% of global oil, and 70% of petrochemicals are not reaching the global market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n An unprecedented geopolitical energy disruption is likely to become worse in the coming months resulting in a decrease oil output, rerouting maritime freight, grounding flights, and increased war-risk insurance premiums. Major disruptions impacting the economies from Asia to Europe are in five main sectors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The regional and global impact highlights are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Since the Middle East War began on February 28, 2026, the world witnessed a surge in the global fuel prices. With the strikes on Iranian targets by the US and Israel, Tehran officially declared the strategic waterway of the Strait of Hormuz closed on March 2, 2026. With the effective closure and disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, IRGC targeted vessels and disrupted oil traffic. The IRGC announced the closure on March 2, 2026 forcing tankers to stop broadcasting signals. Shipping insurance has been revoked, making it a high-risk zone and severely limiting traffic. As of mid-March 2026, some ships, particularly those with links to certain nations like China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan India, Malaysia, Thailand, and Philippines were permitted rare passage. As Europe is divided on how the west should respond to the Iranian threat, Tehran wishes to engage those European countries that have not permitted US military access to use their bases to launch strikes against Iran. To keep Europe divided on the Iran issue, there are early indications that the Iranian regime may permit passage to the vessels of some European countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said: \u201cFor some countries we consider friends, we have allowed passage through the Strait of Hormuz; we permitted China, Russia, India, Iraq, and Pakistan to pass.\u201d[12]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n The preparations by the Iranian regime of attacking the Gulf countries, raising militias and blocking the straits of Hormuz and Bab el Mandab was developed by the IRGC over two decades. In parallel, the Islamic Republic of Iran develop its military nuclear program to deter its enemies – primarily the West and Israel – and emerge as the dominant power in the Middle East. In the meantime, IRGC systematically built an arsenal of rockets, drones and missiles to strike its neighbours by deploying aerospace weapons; naval capabilities to block the Straits of Hormuz, and cultivate and capacitate both Shi\u2019ite and Sunni militia proxies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cIranian officials have been stating that any military confrontation over Tehran’s nuclear program would result in retaliation in the Gulf. The Islamic Republic’s record of following through on such threats, however, has been checkered. In August 2008, a senior Revolutionary Guard commander, noting the strategic importance of Abu Musa and the Tunbs, wrote that “closing the Strait of Hormuz is part of Iran’s defense policy in the face of the U.S. military threat.”[13]<\/a> <\/p>\n\n\n\n Of all the capabilities Iran built what concerned the Israeli, western and Arab security and intelligence communities most was its nuclear program. Saudi Prime Minister and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman explicitly stated that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia will \u201cwithout a doubt\u201d.. “follow suit as soon as possible”.[14]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite its assurances to the international community, Tehran built a nuclear program clandestinely.[15]<\/a> After the MOSSAD accessed Iran\u2019s nuclear archive, Israel shared their findings with the U.S.[16]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n The US joined Israel in its Twelve-Day War June 13\u201324, 2025 to dismantle Iran\u2019s fissile and missile program. On June 22, 2025, the United States Air Force and Navy attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran under the code name \u2018Operation Midnight Hammer\u2019. Trump said: \u201cU.S. military experts told me that if I didn\u2019t strike Iran in time, Israel would not exist. I did what no other president was willing to do. They made mistakes, and I am correcting them. The regime in Iran refused every attempt to reach a deal, and for that reason I ordered the launch of Operation \u2018Midnight Hammer\u2019 in June. The Iranians were close to having missiles that could reach the United States and Europe. They had extremely lethal weapons, and we took them away.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The International Atomic Energy Agency said before the outbreak of the War on February 28, 2026 that \u201cIran used advanced centrifuges there to enrich uranium up to 60% \u2014 a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%\u201d required to make a nuclear bomb.[17]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n As Iran was not forthcoming during the talks mediated by Oman both in Doha and in Geneva, the US and Israel decided to strike Tehran. \u201cDespite Omani Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi\u2019s assessment that the two sides had made \u201csubstantial progress\u201d toward a nuclear deal during the February 26 talks and agreed to meet again March 2 for technical talks, Trump told reporters that he was \u201cnot happy\u201d with what had been achieved or the \u201cway [Iran is] negotiating.\u201d[18]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n With Iran continuing to build a functional nuclear weapon, the U.S. working with Israel responded to the looming threat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The U.S.-Israeli combined operations decapitated the Iranian core leadership on day one of the War starting on February 28, 2026. In Phase One, the combined operations struck air defence capabilities, air force, and navy, and disrupted its military-industrial base. The Iranian regime restored the leadership positions with the penultimate leaders and started to operate from its underground cities where its missile and fissile capabilities are protected. Due to the incessant U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iran\u2019s military infrastructure, the threat from IRGC persists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After the first four weeks, there\u00a0 is a 90% drop in the IRGC attacks. The interception rate by the Gulf countries has also increased to over 95%. The six layered UAE defence system has mitigated the threat of IRGC projectiles targeting both military and civilian infrastructure. Both US and Israeli air defense systems continue to intercept threats from Iran and its proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen protecting both Israel and the Gulf states. However, coerced by its aerospace weapons – missiles and drones – Iran\u2019s neighbours are angry but reluctant to join the fight due to revenge and retaliation by IRGC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n An assessment of the Israel and US combined operations targeting the Iranian regime starting on February 28, 2026 demonstrates that its capabilities are terminal. In the very first month of operations, both the US and Israel focused on seven main categories of targets – regime, regime production industries, nuclear program, defence array, naval array, ballistic missile array, and terror infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n President Trump said on March 30, 2026 that the combined force has struck 13,000 targets since the start of the war on February 28.[19]<\/a> Trump added that the combined force still has around 3,000 targets left to strike.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After eliminating 40 leaders of the Iranian regime hierarchy within the first 40 seconds on February 28, within 24 hours, the Israeli airforce cleared the aerial routes to Tehran and subsequently took control of the Iranian skies.\u00a0 As on March 31, 2026, Israel itself has mounted 800 Strike Sorties and used 16,000 Munitions in March 2026. IDF Data from Operation Roaring Lion thus far indicates: \u201cTo date, more than 800 strike sorties have been carried out by the Israeli Air Force using approximately 16,000 different munitions. It can now be disclosed that, following an extensive identification and planning effort led by IDF intelligence and the Israeli Air Force after Operation Rising Lion, more than 5,000 new targets were identified, including thousands of terror components that were subsequently struck during Operation Roaring Lion.\u201d In addition to striking Iranian regime targets, with the Lebanese Hezbollah opening a new front on March 2, 2026, the IDF, led by the Operations Directorate and supported by the Intelligence Directorate expanded into a multi-front operation, striking a total of 7,000 targets across all fronts of operation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Netanyahu at the Cabinet meeting said \u201cThe United States is threatening to deal forcefully with the Strait of Hormuz issue \u2013 I hope they succeed. Iran must be stripped of this switch. After the war, we need to bypass this by building pipelines from Saudi Arabia to the Mediterranean. We are forming alliances with Arab countries that speak about joining forces with us in combat. In the past, I had secret conversations with Arab leaders. I told them \u2013 the moment Iran can, they will conquer you and topple your kingdoms. Back then, they didn\u2019t fully understand it – today they do.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, French President Emmanuel Macron: \u201cThe Strait of Hormuz should only be opened in coordination with Iran. Opening the Strait of Hormuz by force is not an option we have chosen – we consider it unrealistic.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n On March 30, 2026, President Trump tweeted:<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe United States of America is in serious discussions with A NEW, AND MORE REASONABLE, REGIME to end our Military Operations in Iran. Great progress has been made but, if for any reason a deal is not shortly reached, which it probably will be, and if the Hormuz Strait is not immediately \u201cOpen for Business,\u201d we will conclude our lovely \u201cstay\u201d in Iran by blowing up and completely obliterating all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!), which we have purposefully not yet \u201ctouched.\u201d This will be in retribution for our many soldiers, and others, that Iran has butchered and killed over the old Regime\u2019s 47 year \u201cReign of Terror.\u201d Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n In retaliation, Ebrahim Azizi, the head of the Iranian parliament\u2019s national security committee, also said the passage, a key trading route for international oil exports, would not be reopened for American vessels. The committee approved proposals to toll ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Iran\u2019s state media. Iran is currently charging vessels around \u00a31.5 million to transit the strait.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In a post on X, Azizi said: \u201cTrump has finally achieved his dream of \u2018regime change\u2019 \u2013 but in the region\u2019s maritime regime! The Strait of Hormuz will certainly reopen, but not for you; it will be open for those who comply with the new laws of Iran. The 47 years of hospitality are over forever.\u201d[20]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump said that the Iranian leaders has started to negotiate with the US. However, when the IRGC found out, the leadership was warned and asked to openly contradict Trumps statements. The IRGC messaged that Tehran did not wish to negotiate with Washington. Trump wrote on his Truth Social, \u201cIran\u2019s New Regime President, much less Radicalized and far more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States of America for a CEASEFIRE! We will consider when Hormuz Strait is open, free, and clear. Until then, we are blasting Iran into oblivion or, as they say, back to the Stone Ages!!!\u201d[21]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n After IRGC consulted Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran not only rejected the talks but urged its leaders to issue statements aligned to its own thinking. Tehran\u2019s position was articulated by Ali Nikzad, Deputy Speaker of the Iranian Parliament. Nikzad said: \u201cWe will not let Trump go until we avenge the death of Khamenei and the Muslims. The decision on war, peace, or negotiations lies solely with the Supreme Leader, and he has not given instructions to conduct negotiations. We are not conducting negotiations, and the enemy’s statements that the Speaker of the Parliament is negotiating are false.\u201d Ali Nikzad added that, \u201cThe Strait of Hormuz will never be opened.\u201d Likewise, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on March 29, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency, said, \u201cOur men are waiting for American soldiers to enter on the ground.\u201d[22]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n The IRGC mindset is to seek revenge and not engage in honest negotiations. The concept of Taqia or deception, a Shi\u2019ite practice is very much integrated in the regime\u2019s diplomatic approach. Especially with Trump, who successfully targeted their leadership, IRGC will not negotiate sincerely. On the contrary, IRGC will attempt to assassinate Trump as president or after his term ends him. It will be the third attempt to kill Trump, the leader who has damaged the Ayatollah regime more than any other sitting US leader. An unforgiving entity, if the IRGC survives, its operators and agents will also present a profound threat to the region. In keeping with its policy of retaliation and retribution, IRGC will threaten Gulf heads of government and state long after the War is over.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Most countries in the Middle East wish to negotiate with Iran through fear. Due to threats issued by IRGC, they are afraid to fight the Iranian regime. However, due to persistent attacks by IRGC, most countries in the Gulf are rethinking their approach. They may support the U.S. plans and preparations to use force to open the Straits of Hormuz. Located in the Strait of Hormuz between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs were seized by Imperial Iranian Navy on November 30, 1971, shortly after the British forces withdrew and before the unification of the UAE. To the Iranian threat, the \u201cUAE, being a new and fragile confederation of small sheikhdoms, was also unable to respond\u201d.[23]<\/a> After Imperial State of Iran claimed sovereignty over both sets of islands, the UAE took the issue before the UN. Before they joined the UAE, the Emirate of Ras al-Khaimah claimed the Greater and Lesser Tunbs and the Emirate of Sharjah claimed Abu Musa. As they are disputed islands controlled by Iran, in the event the U.S. seizes them from the Iranian regime, if the UAE participates in the operation to open the Straits of Hormuz, it is likely that the islands of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs will be returned to the UAE. Half a century after Iran occupied these islands, the Emiratis continue to live on them and speak Arabic.[24]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n According to the former Iranian Vice President and Foreign Minister M. Javad Zarif, \u201cEvery night since February 28, large crowds of proud Iranians have gathered across the country to show their defiance by shouting, \u2018No capitulation, no compromise, fight with America\u2019.\u201d[25]<\/a> The Iranian regime has replaced its apex leadership with a penultimate leadership. With Chinese and Russian support, Iran seeks to replenish its losses and wastage. However, the threat to Iran from the U.S. and Israel is severe. Unless, there is a ceasefire or US-Israel retreat, the Iranian regime will not be able to survive and sustain the fight in the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Although IRGC has sufficient aerospace weapons in its arsenal to protract the fight throughout March 2026, the threat facing Tehran is terminal. Built to endure, IRGC has diversified and decentralised its administrative, military and security apparatus. Conceptualised by General Mohammad Ali Jafari, who led the IRGC from 2007 to 2019, IRGC\u2019s mosaic defence strategy where the state\u2019s defensive structure was organised \u201cinto multiple regional and semi-independent layers instead of concentrating power in a single command chain that could be paralysed by a decapitation strike\u201d. Under this model, the IRGC, the Basij, regular army units, missile forces, naval assets and local command structures form parts of a distributed system. If one part is hit, others keep functioning. If senior leaders are killed, the chain does not collapse. If communications are severed, local units still retain the authority and capacity to act.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The doctrine has two central aims: to make Iran\u2019s command system difficult to dismantle by force, and to make the battlefield itself harder to resolve quickly by turning Iran into a layered arena of regular defence, irregular warfare, local mobilisation and long-term attrition.\u201d[26]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Iranian regime is convinced that \u201cit has shown that the United States is incapable of destroying Iran\u2019s nuclear or missile programs, even when it operates alongside Israel and with the financial and logistical support of its Persian Gulf partners. These programs are simply too entrenched and too dispersed to be bombed away.\u201d[27]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Although Iranian strategists and thinkers claim that IRGC\u2019s mosaic defence is built to last, it has been adequately degraded and can be dismantled. In the next phase of operations, the U.S. and Israel will seek to achieve three objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n In the next phase of operations, the U.S. is planning to take control of the Straits of Hormuz, secure the Strait of Bab el Madab, and recover Iran\u2019s enriched Uranium. The U.S. is moving a significant force to attack Iran\u2019s arc of defence that enables Washington to control the Straits of Hormuz. Iran\u2019s IRGC describes its strategic islands of Kharg Island, Abu Musa, Greater Tonb, Lesser Tonb, Hengam, Qeshm, Larak and Hormuz as \u201cunsinkable aircraft carriers.\u201d[28]<\/a> Of the ten Iranian islands in the Persian Gulf, about 90% of Iran\u2019s oil exports pass through the Kharg Island. The regime\u2019s primary source of hard currency, the Kharg Island funds at least 50% of IRGC\u2019s capacity including maintenance of its off-shore proxies. Considering its importance, the U.S. has been training and conducting exercises on models to capture Kharg Island since August 1980 when Americans were taken hostage in Tehran. As IRGC benefits from 50% of revenue from the sale of Iranian oil, its rank and file maintains a formidable presence on the highly fortified islands.<\/p>\n\n\n\n IRGC is in charge of Iran\u2019s billions of dollars of illicit commercial and financial networks working around the international sanctions. \u201cWith the U.S. reimposition of oil sanctions lifted under the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement, the IRGC has smuggled oil, mostly to China, and generated millions of dollars for the Quds Force and Hezbollah\u201d, one of its proxies and partners.[29]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Although Iran\u2019s naval capabilities are only a fraction of what it was, Tehran will fight using its asymmetric capabilities. On March 27, 2026, Admiral Brad Cooper, US CENTCOM Commander said, \u201cSince the commencement of Operation Epic Fury, 92% of the large ships in the Iranian Navy have been eliminated. As a result, IRGC-N has completely lost their ability to project power in the Middle East or around the world. \u2026U.S. military strikes on the IRGC-N will continue. Therefore, we call on every Iranian serving in the IRGC-N to immediately abandon their post and return home to avoid further risk of unnecessary injury or death.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n In preparation for invasion, the IDF eliminated Iran\u2019s most brilliant naval strategist Admiral Alireza Tangsiri, who commanded the IRGC Navy. After its Military Intelligence located his safe house in Bandar Abbas, Iran, the IDF targeted him and his associates on a 8th story apartment at 3am on March 26, 2026. The IRGC-N intelligence directorate head Behnam Rezaei was killed in the same strike on the port city of Bandar Abbas. Israel\u2019s defence minister Israel Katz said Tangsiri was responsible for the attacks that have blocked ships from crossing the strait of Hormuz and described the strike as a \u201cmessage\u201d to the IRGC: \u201c[Israel] will hunt you down and eliminate you one by one.\u201d[30]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Although Admiral Tangsiri was killed, his doctrine will guide the Iranian IRGC\u2019s thinking and actions. Before his death, the Khamenei-appointed Tangsiri said,<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cOur tactical approach requires us to arm and activate this group of islands. We have the capability to strike enemy bases, warships and assets in the region.\u201d[31]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n In a public message, Admiral Cooper, US CENTCOM Commander said to the IRGC rank and file: \u201cwe call on every Iranian serving in the IRGC-N to immediately abandon their post and return home to avoid further risk of unnecessary injury or death.\u201d Cooper added, \u201cTangsiri commanded the IRGC-N for eight years, during which time the IRGC harassed thousands of innocent merchant mariners, attacked hundreds of vessels with one way attack drones and missiles, and killed countless innocent civilians.\u201d Tangsiri who challenged Trump to capture Kharg Island transformed it into a kill zone by investing in a wide range of capabilities from sea mines to fast boats \u2013 light, manoeuvrable craft that can threaten civilian shipping but also evade the defence systems of modern warships.[32]<\/a> Before his death, Tangsiri wrote in a post on the social media platform X (Twitter) that Iran had previously been tested through the Strait of Hormuz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cYou tested Iran once through the Strait of Hormuz,\u201d Tangsiri wrote adding, \u201cIf the smart control of the strait established a new benchmark for oil prices, an attack on Khark would create another severe and entirely new equation for global energy prices and distribution.\u201d[33]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n The Phase II of operations will include not only securing the Straits of Hormuz but also the Strait of Bab al-Mandab. \u201cThe option of closing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a Yemeni option that can be implemented should the aggression against Iran and Lebanon escalate savagely, or if any Gulf state becomes directly involved in military operations in support of the [Zionist] entity or the United States,\u201d said Houthi Deputy Information Minister Mohammed Mansour.[34]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n The next flash point, Bab el-Mandeb Strait, connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, with Yemen on one side. IRGC\u2019s strategic reserve, Ansar Allah of the Houthi movement in Yemen is threatening to disrupt shipping through Bab el-Mandab if Gulf countries join the fight against Iran. The Strait of Bab al-Mandab is in the southern mouth of the Red Sea, between Ansar Allah-controlled Yemen and Djibouti. Like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Ansar Allah supported the Hamas led war against Israeli. Ansar Allah chants \u2018Death to America, Death to Israel, [and] a Curse on the Jews\u2019\u2014 first began attacking Israel and maritime traffic in November 2023, a month after the October 7, 2023, Hamas massacre that started the Gaza war.\u201d[35]<\/a> Since then, Ansar Allah have intermittently targeted commercial vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, using missiles, drones, and explosive laden boats. One month after the Middle East War began on February 28, Ansar Allah launched their first direct missile attack on Israel. Before the onset of the current regional conflict, Ansar Allah has been preparing to strike Iran\u2019s enemies – Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Calling it retaliation for the targeting of territories in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine, Ansar Allah added that operations will continue until the “aggression” on all fronts ends. The Ansar Allah attack marks a significant escalation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Directed by IRGC, Ansar Allah is likely to open a new front in the Middle East. Saudi oil and gas move through Bab el Mandeb, the strait that connects the Eastern and Western worlds. A critical bridge, Bab el Mandeb is the gateway to the Suez Canal and connects trade between Europe and Asia. The alternative is to reroute traffic around Africa which is a two day long journey. If the Houthi Movement blocks Bab el Mandeb, it will affect the economies of Europe, Africa and Asia. As such, Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Israel, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea and Egypt have expressed concern. Egyptian Member of Parliament Mostafa Bakri said: “The Houthis need to know that Egypt will not remain silent if there is a threat to its national security and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait is closed. Egypt has remained silent for a long time despite the losses it has suffered recently. But I do not believe Egypt can remain silent in the face of threats to close the strait. The strait is the economic lifeline of Egypt. Its closure would be a great disaster.”[36]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n In the next phase of operations, the most challenging mission is for the U.S. and Israel to take control of Iran\u2019s enriched uranium. The threat is apparent – it will be catastrophic for the region and the world for IRGC to control a nuclear weapon. \u201cPreventing Iran from acquiring a bomb is one of Trump\u2019s stated war aims, and the 440kg HEU stockpile represents the greatest nuclear threat as it could be turned into weapons-grade uranium relatively easily.\u201d[37]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Based on IAEA reporting and related developments as of early 2026, Iran accumulated a stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% U-235, estimated at 440.9 kg, just prior to the Israel-Iran conflict in June 2025.[38]<\/a> The US special envoy Steve Witkov has said that Iranian negotiators boasted that they had enough highly enriched uranium to build nearly 11 bombs. According to Witkoff, \u201ctwo Iranian negotiators openly acknowledged possessing roughly 460 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent\u2014an amount he said they admitted could be converted into as many as 11 nuclear bombs. \u2018They weren\u2019t hiding it. They were proud,\u2019 he said, adding that Iranian officials also boasted of bypassing international monitoring systems to reach that point.\u201d[39]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran experts Zeynab Malakouti and Mohammad Eslami reveal that IRGC has full control of the stockpile of enriched uranium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite the U.S. and Israel targeting and degrading nuclear sites in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow, as well as the yellowcake production facility in Ardakan, which processes uranium ore in the early stages of the fuel cycle, and the heavy-water reactor in Arak\u201d Iran\u2019s military nuclear capabilities are still intact.[40]<\/a> The US and Israel seeks to recover the Iranian stockpile of Uranium from the Iranians and not permit Tehran to use it either to produce a nuclear weapon or to make a deal by leveraging its relationship with its allies, Russia or China.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Strait of Hormuz in the hands of Iran\u2019s IRGC is a weapon for long term leverage. The U.S. intelligence community has rightly assessed that \u201cIran is unlikely to open the Strait of Hormuz because its grip on the world\u2019s most vital oil artery provides the only real leverage it has over the United States.\u201d[41]<\/a> After having turned oil into a weapon, Tehran will continue to throttle the strait to keep energy prices high. Washington is planning to respond with force.<\/p>\n\n\n\n To maintain a high tempo of operations in the Middle East, the US has moved over a third of its naval and aviation assets to the Middle East. The US has deployed two aircraft carriers to support Epic Fury and is planning to deploy a third aircraft carrier. To join the US military buildup in the Middle East, USS George H.W. Bush departed Naval Station Norfolk in the US state of Virginia on March 31, 2026. The deployment of Bush to the Middle East would increase the number of US aircraft carriers to three in the region. While the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier remains stationed in the Arabian Sea for strikes against Iran amid the war, the USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, is taking a break in Croatia. Ford had a fire in a laundry room on March 12, 2026 prompting its return from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean Sea to undergo repairs at a naval base in Crete.<\/p>\n\n\n\n When Bush reaches the Middle East, the US operation to open the Straits of Hormuz and secure the Strait of Bab el Mandab is likely to begin. Nicknamed the \u201cAvenger\u201d, the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier along with three destroyers, Bush carry more than 6,000 sailors. The guided-missile destroyer escorts are USS Mason (DDG-87), USS Donald Cook (DDG-75) and USS Ross (DDG-71) with the staff of Norfolk-based Destroyer Squadron 22.[42]<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Embarked on the carrier is Carrier Air Wing 7 including a Navy\u2019s CMV-22B Osprey as a carrier onboard delivery aircraft with a detachment from the \u201cMighty Bisons\u201d of Fleet Logistics Multi-Mission Squadron (VRM) 40.[43]<\/a> The Carrier Air Wing 7 includes[44]<\/a>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n All three aircraft carriers will be deployed to open the Straits of Hormuz and secure the Straits of Bab el Mandab. Until these two main energy arteries in the Middle East are fully operational, the energy prices will spike. To prevent a global recession, both the straits should be secured and reinforced. The intervention should be not only the U.S. but by all responsible partners of the international community. To endure, it should be an international response partnered by the Gulf, the Europeans and other countries committed to global peace and security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n By closing the Strait of Hormuz and threatening to close the Strait of Bab el Madeb, the Iranian regime is blackmailing the world. By controlling and threatening to disrupt the flow of energy through these straits, the Iranian regime has sent a clear message.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Unless there is regime change or reorientation in Tehran, Iran will destabilise the Gulf and the rest of the world. Based on its conduct so far, there should be no doubt of what will happen to regional stability and global security if IRGC successfully persists in development of its missile, fissile and terrorist proxy programs. The biggest of the three threats will be if Iran develops a functional nuclear weapon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Sitting in Iran, the leverage that the IRGC applies on Middle Eastern security and the global economy is remarkable. Reporting directly to the supreme leader, IRGC has formed an \u201caxis of resistance\u201d to get rid of Western and Israeli influence in the region. To export the revolution, IRGC is ideologically motivating both Sunni and Shiite groups to resist and conduct acts of terrorism worldwide.[45]<\/a> Both ideologically and operationally, Iran under the the radical and violent Shi\u2019ite leaders will continue to pose a formidable threat to global security.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Iran\u2019s militia, terrorist and criminal proxies continues to stage attacks. Starting with its sponsorship of the Hezbollah, 241 U.S. and 58 French military personnel, six civilians and two of the attackers were killed on October 23, 1983. The contemporary wave of suicide terrorism emerged after the two truck bombs detonated at buildings in Beirut, Lebanon, housing American and French service members of the Multinational Force in Lebanon, a military peacekeeping operation during the Lebanese Civil War. Today, Iran is branded as the world\u2019s top state sponsor of terrorism. IRGC\u2019s activities worldwide especially in Asia and Africa demonstrates a long term threat it poses to regions beyond the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Today, Iran harbours the leadership of Al Qaeda, one of the two most dangerous terrorist movements. After Tehran initiated a rapprochement between AQAP and Ansar Allah, IRGC is supporting Al Shabab through Ansarallah in Yemen. Al Shabab is assisting threat groups in the Sahel, the centre of gravity of terrorism in Africa. Its programs in Africa from conversions to creating proxies is deterimental to the future security of the continent. If there is no decisive African response, IRGC sponsored programs will destabilise Africa in the coming decade and disrupt the land and sea passages between Africa and the Middle East. Like the straits of Hormus and Bab el-Mandeb, the two connecting water bodies Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea too will be affected in the future by IRGC operations in Yemen and Somalia. The insidious threat posed by IRGC unless effectively constrained, disrupted and dismantled will spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Ayatollahs have ruled Iran for 47 years. The Shi\u2019ite regime has ruined a beautiful country with a continuous civilisation of 6000 years. Their reign is marked by triumph, grief and despair. It has brought untold suffering to its proud people and inflicted a colossal tragedy upon Iran as a civilisation. With this realisation, the Iranian people have started to turn against a brutal regime. Its most current wave began as a protest in September 2022 following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini in morality police custody. This movement was marked by widespread, nationwide protests against compulsory hijab laws and the clerical regime. The next wave of protests was following the sharp rise in fuel prices in November 2019. The current wave of protests was triggered by the economic collapse in December 2025 and continued in January and February 2026. However, the sheer use of force by the regime\u2019s Basij force, now operating under IRGC, suppressed the protesters in Iran. This approach has enabled the Ayatollah-led regime to survive at least in the short term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Ayatollahs of Iran present themselves as the guardians of the Muslims. By exploiting religious beliefs, they have got away by threatening both mainstream Iranians and the international community. Since the Islamic revolution in Tehran on April 1, 1979, their conduct has contributed to instability and insecurity. The seizure of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran by the newly formed regime held 52 Americans hostage for 444 days. The inadequate US response emboldened the Mullahs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Today will be no different. Unless the international community acts on all fronts, Iran under the Ayatollahs will continue. A mere US and Israeli military response is inadequate – in parallel, the response should be political, economic and social. Only then, the regime run by the IRGC will be dismantled and its ideology replaced. However, for such an achievement, governments worldwide need to come together and work with the Iranian people. Removing the Iranian threat to restore domestic, regional and international stability is a global imperative. Rather than dilly-dallying, the visionary and far-reaching leaders need to seize this moment to help the Iranian people and seize the opportunity to build a safer world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n Rohan Gunaratna<\/em><\/a> is editor of the \u201cHandbook of Terrorism in the Middle East\u201d. He has travelled in the Middle East extensively including to Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen.<\/em> At the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at the Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, he teaches intelligence and national security, and homeland security, counter terrorism and intelligence. He trains military forces, law enforcement authorities and national security agencies.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n [1]<\/a> https:\/\/x.com\/UNCTAD\/status\/2039659420758499395<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [2]<\/a> https:\/\/x.com\/UNCTAD\/status\/2039720813939585171<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [3]<\/a> Mojtaba vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed – New Supreme Leader Releases Statement, https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/13\/mojtaba-vows-to-keep-strait-of-hormuz-closed\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [4]<\/a> Mike Lee, \u201cUS must reopen Strait of Hormuz to cut spiking energy prices, oil chief says\u201d Politico, March 24, 2026, https:\/\/www.politico.com\/news\/2026\/03\/24\/us-must-reopen-strait-of-hormuz-to-cut-spiking-energy-prices-oil-chief-says-00843191<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [5]<\/a> Lily Boyce and Ruth Igielnik, \u201cUnlike Past U.S. Conflicts, Iran Attack Is Opposed by Most Americans\u201d, NYT, March 10, 2026, https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2026\/03\/10\/us\/politics\/polls-wars-us-support.html<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [6]<\/a> \u201cDonald Trump warns Nato faces \u2018very bad future\u2019 if allies fail to help US in Iran\u201d Financial Times, https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/1ca6d121-760b-4ec5-b6ad-514fdaa94873<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [7]<\/a> \u201cAssessment: The minimum period of time the war will last – and the final picture\u201d Israel Hayom, https:\/\/www.israelhayom.co.il\/news\/geopolitics\/article\/20251982<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [8]<\/a> Ryan Price, \u201cExtra UK troops to be deployed to Middle East to help allies against Iranian attacks: ‘Britain\u2019s best’ will help protect Gulf partners, says Defence Secretary\u201d March 31, 2026 https:\/\/www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk\/news\/uk-news\/extra-british-troops-middle-east-33692152<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [9]<\/a> \u201cAustralia deploys SAS troops to the Middle East\u201d, April 3, 2026 https:\/\/www.skynews.com.au\/australia-news\/defence-and-foreign-affairs\/australia-deploys-sas-troops-to-the-middle-east\/video\/c2d67de06d202aa2bbf80da72272680e?amp<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [10]<\/a> Aamer Madhani, Samy Magdy, Matthew Lee, and Sam Mednick, \u201cGulf allies privately make the case to Trump to keep fighting until Iran is decisively defeated\u201d, AP, March 31, 2026 https:\/\/apnews.com\/hub\/united-arab-emirates<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [11]<\/a> \u201cAssessment: The minimum period of time the war will last – and the final picture\u201d Israel Hayom, https:\/\/www.israelhayom.co.il\/news\/geopolitics\/article\/20251982<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [12]<\/a> There is no reason to allow our enemy to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera, March 26, 2026 https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/amp\/news\/2026\/3\/26\/iranian-naval-commander-alireza-tangsiri-killed-in-attack-says-israel<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [13]<\/a> Simon Henderson, The Persian Gulf’s ‘Occupied Territory’: The Three-Island Dispute, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, PolicyWatch 1402, Sep 8, 2008 https:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/policy-analysis\/persian-gulfs-occupied-territory-three-island-dispute<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [14]<\/a> Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman says his country could develop nuclear weapons, CBS Evening News, https:\/\/m.youtube.com\/watch?v=CujfC5ixGKQ<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [15]<\/a> \u201cIsrael says Iran hid nuclear arms programme\u201d, BBC, May 1, 2018 https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-middle-east-43952196<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [16]<\/a> Israel ex-top spy reveals Mossad operations against Iran, BBC, June 11, 2021 https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/world-middle-east-57440430<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [17]<\/a> Stephanie Liechtenstein, \u201cIran\u2019s nuclear ambassador alleges that US-Israeli airstrikes targeted the Natanz enrichment facility\u201d, AP, March 2, 2026 https:\/\/apnews.com\/article\/iran-nuclear-facilities-attack-us-israel-3e08a78093e62dc76beb86ba1fca69ae<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [18]<\/a> Kelsey Davenport, \u201cU.S. Negotiators Were Ill-Prepared for Serious Nuclear Talks With Iran\u201d, Arms Control Association, April 2026 https:\/\/www.armscontrol.org\/act\/2026-04\/features\/analysis-us-negotiators-were-ill-prepared-serious-nuclear-talks-iran<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [19]<\/a> Donald Trump said US could \u2018take the oil in iran\u2019 Financial Times, March 30, 2026; https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [20]<\/a> Strait of Hormuz to reopen \u2018to those who comply with the new laws of Iran\u2019, The Telegraph, April 01, 2026; https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/world-news\/2026\/04\/01\/iran-war-latest-news-trump-israel-strait-of-hormuz-nato\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [21]<\/a> Jacob Magid, Trump claims \u2018new Iran regime president\u2019 wants ceasefire, says he\u2019ll consider if Hormuz opened, April 1, 2026 https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/liveblog_entry\/trump-claims-new-iran-regime-president-wants-ceasefire-says-hell-consider-if-hormuz-opened\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [22]<\/a> Trump says US could \u2018take the oil\u2019 in Iran, seize export hub: Financial Times, Straits Times, March 30, 2026 https:\/\/www.straitstimes.com\/world\/middle-east\/trump-says-us-could-take-the-oil-in-iran-seize-export-hub-ft<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [23]<\/a> Simon Henderson, The Persian Gulf’s ‘Occupied Territory’:The Three-Island Dispute, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, PolicyWatch 1402, Sep 8, 2008; https:\/\/www.washingtoninstitute.org\/policy-analysis\/persian-gulfs-occupied-territory-three-island-dispute<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [24]<\/a> Interview, Rohan Gunaratna, April 4, 2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n [25]<\/a> M. Javad Zarif, \u201cHow Iran Should End the War; A Deal Tehran Could Take\u201d, Foreign Affairs, April 3, 2026 https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/middle-east\/how-iran-should-end-war<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [26]<\/a> Shady Ibrahim, \u201cThe \u2018Fourth Successor\u2019: Iran\u2019s plan for a long war with the US and Israel\u201d, Al Jazeera, March 10, 2026; https:\/\/www.aljazeera.com\/amp\/features\/2026\/3\/10\/the-fourth-successor-how-iran-planned-to-fight-a-long-war-with-the-us-and-israel<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [27]<\/a> M. Javad Zarif, \u201cHow Iran Should End the War; A Deal Tehran Could Take\u201d, Foreign Affairs, April 3, 2026; https:\/\/www.foreignaffairs.com\/middle-east\/how-iran-should-end-war<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [28]<\/a> Strategic islands: Iranian outposts that could shape US control of the Strait of Hormuz, YnetNews, March 28, 2026; https:\/\/www.ynetnews.com\/article\/b1hwgfrjbe<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [29]<\/a> \u201cThe Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)\u201d, Backgrounder, CFR, January 30, 2026, https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/backgrounders\/irans-revolutionary-guards<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [30]<\/a> Jason Burke, \u201cIRGC naval commander killed in Israeli strike was hardliner who understood power of strait of Hormuz\u201d The Guardian, March 26, 2026 https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2026\/mar\/26\/irgc-naval-commander-killed-in-israeli-strike-was-hardliner-who-understood-power-of-strait-of-hormuz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [31]<\/a> Strategic islands: Iranian outposts that could shape US control of the Strait of Hormuz, YnetNews, March 28, 2026; https:\/\/www.ynetnews.com\/article\/b1hwgfrjbe<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [32]<\/a> Jason Burke, \u201cIRGC naval commander killed in Israeli strike was hardliner who understood power of strait of Hormuz\u201d The Guardian, March 26, 2026; https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2026\/mar\/26\/irgc-naval-commander-killed-in-israeli-strike-was-hardliner-who-understood-power-of-strait-of-hormuz<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [33]<\/a> Any Attack on Khark Would Reshape Global Energy Pricing, WANA, March 16, 2026; https:\/\/wanaen.com\/any-attack-on-khark-would-reshape-global-energy-pricing\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [34]<\/a> \u201cYemen\u2019s Houthis threaten potential closure of key Red Sea strait if Gulf states join war\u201d The Times of Israel, April 2, 2026; https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/yemens-houthis-threaten-potential-closure-of-key-red-sea-strait-if-gulf-states-join-war\/amp\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [35]<\/a> \u201cYemen\u2019s Houthis threaten potential closure of key Red Sea strait if Gulf states join war\u201d The Times of Israel, April 2, 2026 https:\/\/www.timesofisrael.com\/yemens-houthis-threaten-potential-closure-of-key-red-sea-strait-if-gulf-states-join-war\/amp\/<\/p>\n\n\n\n [36]<\/a> https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/61565445220260\/photos\/-egyptian-member-of-parliament-mostafa-bakri-the-houthis-need-to-know-that-egypt\/122200503638514840\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [37]<\/a> Julian Borger, \u201cIran Nuclear Program: US weighs sending forces into Iran to secure nuclear stockpile, reports say US weighs sending forces into Iran to secure nuclear stockpile, reports say\u201d, March 10, 2026; https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2026\/mar\/10\/us-weighs-sending-forces-into-iran-to-secure-nuclear-stockpile-reports-say<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [38]<\/a> Parham Ghobadi, \u201cIran significantly growing uranium stockpile, warns UN nuclear agency\u201d BBC, May 31, 2025; https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/articles\/c1mg7kx2d45o<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [39]<\/a> \u201cIran could have produced 11 nuclear bombs:’ Witkoff reveals details from negotiations\u201d, i24NEWS, March 3, 2026, https:\/\/www.i24news.tv\/en\/news\/middle-east\/iran-eastern-states\/artc-iran-could-have-produced-11-nuclear-bombs-witkoff-reveals-details-from-negotiations<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [40]<\/a> Zeynab Malakouti and Mohammad Eslami, \u201cWhat a Durable Peace with Iran Requires – If President Trump wants to get serious about diplomacy, Iran’s door is always open.\u201d Vision Iran Initiative, March 30, 2026; https:\/\/bourseandbazaar.substack.com\/p\/what-a-durable-peace-with-iran-requires<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [41]<\/a> Jonathan Landay, Erin Banco and Phil Stewart, \u201cUS intelligence warns Iran unlikely to ease Hormuz Strait chokehold soon, sources say\u201d Reuters, April 4, 2026 https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/middle-east\/us-intelligence-warns-iran-unlikely-ease-hormuz-strait-chokehold-soon-sources-2026-04-03\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [42]<\/a> Sam Lagrone, USS George H.W. Bush Departs for Deployment, USS Gerald Ford Could Be Extended to 11 Months, USNI, March 31, 2026; https:\/\/news.usni.org\/2026\/03\/31\/uss-george-h-w-bush-departs-for-deployment-uss-gerald-ford-could-be-extended-to-11-months<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [43]<\/a> Sam Lagrone, USS George H.W. Bush Departs for Deployment, USS Gerald Ford Could Be Extended to 11 Months, USNI, March 31, 2026; https:\/\/news.usni.org\/2026\/03\/31\/uss-george-h-w-bush-departs-for-deployment-uss-gerald-ford-could-be-extended-to-11-months<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [44]<\/a> Sam Lagrone, USS George H.W. Bush Departs for Deployment, USS Gerald Ford Could Be Extended to 11 Months, USNI, March 31, 2026; https:\/\/news.usni.org\/2026\/03\/31\/uss-george-h-w-bush-departs-for-deployment-uss-gerald-ford-could-be-extended-to-11-months<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n [45]<\/a> \u201cThe Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)\u201d, Backgrounder, CFR, January 30, 2026, https:\/\/www.cfr.org\/backgrounders\/irans-revolutionary-guards<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Ayatollahs of Iran present themselves as the guardians of the Muslims. By exploiting religious beliefs, they have got away by threatening both mainstream Iranians and the international community. A mere US and Israeli military response is inadequate – in parallel, the response should be political, economic and social. Only then, the regime run by the IRGC will be dismantled and its ideology replaced. However, for such an achievement, governments worldwide need to come together and work with the Iranian people.![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Strait-of-Hormuz-Traffic-daily-.jpeg\")
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Concentration-of-IS-Israeli-strikes-on-Iran-819x1024.jpeg\")
The Context<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
Background<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
\n
\n
\n
The Threat Landscape<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Irans-retaliatory-strikes-1024x683.jpeg\")
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/IRGC-Operation-True-Promise-4-Avg-launch-activity-Feb-28-Apr-3-1024x942.jpeg\")
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Trump-Statement-on-iran-mines--1024x562.jpeg\")
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/CMA-CGM-passes-through-Strait-of-Hormuz-1024x684.jpeg\")
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Casualties-in-US-Israeli-and-Iranian-attacks-819x1024.jpeg\")
Negotiations with Trump<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Iran-releases-poster-saying-Say-goodbye-to-electricity-571x1024.jpeg\"){kind=spacer}
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Ali-Nikzad-Deputy-Speaker-of-the-Iranian-Parliament-917x1024.jpeg\")
Next Phase of Operations<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Admiral-Tangrisi-eliminated-1024x671.jpeg\")
International Response<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/US-Assets-employed-in-Operation-Epid-Fury-819x1024.jpeg\")
\n
Conclusion<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Trump-Statement-on-iran-ultimatum.jpeg\")
![\"\"](\"http:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/04\/Oldest-illustrations-of-the-Strait-of-Hormuz.jpeg\")
\n\n\n\n
\nIn this article, I write an in-depth analysis of the problem presenting itself to the international security community.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2146,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[28],"acf":[],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2130"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2130"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2130\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2147,"href":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2130\/revisions\/2147"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2146"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2130"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2130"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/rohangunaratna.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2130"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}